from the economic changes. It was not so much the
absolute scale of poverty but the nature of social differentiation and the
collapse of social guarantees which led to a tangible level of
dissatisfaction amongst the populations and a move towards the left. After
the return to power of the former communist parties in Poland, Hungary,
Slovakia and Bulgaria, however, the processes of social division continued.
The new capital accumulated at the beginning of the 1990's attempted to play
the leading role in the processes of privatisation and to accrue more and
more wealth. Mass privatisation, most significantly in Russia, led to the
concentration of privatisation vouchers in the hands of a small group of
extremely wealthy owners who acquired the ownership of enormous production
potential for a fraction of its real value. To a lesser extent the same
thing happened in Czechoslovakia and a similar picture of social division
can be expected in Bulgaria after mass privatisation.
The post-communist countries are experiencing a common crisis of
identity and profound political contradictions. If they lead to a
stratification of society into a small group of wealthy people (5-7%) and a
large group of people deprived of any ownership of the means of production,
this will be a backwards step. In reality these countries will return to a
state from which the industrialised countries have already progressed and to
outdated social models. If the division of ownership in Eastern Europe
creates class divisions then it is extremely possible for this to create a
chain reaction with exceptionally adverse consequences for the process of
reform and the transition to a Fourth Civilisation. Clearly the collapse of
the Eastern European societies into classes will not send them into the New
Civilisation but will hold them back in the grips of the old. The peoples of
these countries will have to experience its contradictions and to struggle
with the problems which the Western countries have already overcome. This
will cause difficulties for the socialisation of ownership and will render
the reconstruction of the market impossible leading to a revival of
bureaucracy and the bureaucratic state. We should not be surprised that such
a transition will not only return the former communist parties to power but
also the "strong hand" governments of corrupt politicians and combinations
of the two. This will be extremely unfavourable for the development of the
Eastern European states and at the same time it will be a retarding factor
for the whole of world development, especially if such processes are allowed
to take place in Russia, China and other larger countries.
The question arises whether it is at all possible for the former
totalitarian states to make the transition directly to the Fourth
Civilisation. My response is entirely positive. The relatively good material
infrastructure of the Eastern European countries, the high level of
education and culture of the population as well as the experience of
communism as one type of social development are all factors which create a
basis for the transition to new types of relations without passing through
the phase of initial capital accumulation. The technology of such a
transition has been inadequately researched but it is absolutely applicable
on the basis ofthe results of the period between 1990-1995.
Above all, in order to accomplish such a process of development and to
approach the level of the industrialised countries and the trends of the
Fourth Civilisation it will be necessary to achieve some sort of minimal
political consensus. If confrontations and instability continue, and if
behind the facade of the "political struggle" corruption and crime is
allowed to flourish, the post-communist countries will regress at least
30-50 years into the past. Only common will and the consolidation of society
will redirect their material and cultural heritage towards the framework of
the emerging new civilisation.
The second great problem is the redistribution of ownership. As I have
already mentioned, this process has begun with restitution, or the return of
property nationalised at the end of the 1940's. This process, if it takes
place within real limits, will throw the post-communist states into serious
conflicts which are unnecessary at the end of the 20th century. The example
of the Bulgaria is particularly indicative. However, even if privatisation
is carried out without restitution, as in Russia and if it is carried out
with the out-dated methods of the time of "wild capitalism", this will not
lead to any positive results. The main aim of privatisation is to dynamise
the post-communist societies, to form civil societies and for the majority
of the citizens to receive some form of ownership of the means of
production. A society of voluntarily associated owners is the alternative to
totalitarianism, the class society and primitive capitalism. In order to
achieve this a number of specialised privatisation methods will be required.
The most successful experience has been demonstrated in the Czech Republic
and Slovenia and, albeit under different conditions, in the former East
Germany. The main aim of these methods in my opinion should be: firstly to
demonopolise the large-scale enterprises inherited from totalitarian times,
to preserve those with the greatest potential and to transform them into
trans-national corporations; secondly, a reliable stock exchange system
should be developed wherein a significant part of these enterprises can be
sold by means of mass privatisation, market methods and the substitution of
debt against ownership; thirdly, the necessary legislative framework needs
to be developed to allow for privatisation by management teams as well as
the possibility for as many small and medium enterprises as possible to be
established for the use and gradual purchase by citizens; fourthly, the
possibility for workers' collectives to receive without payment ownership in
the enterprises in which they are employed.
The eventual aim of such policies will be for the majority of the
population within 5-10 years to integrated within the structures of
ownership in the aims of establishing the economic basis for a civil
society.
The third major problem of the post-communist countries will be their
integration within the world economy. As can be seen from table 6, between
1985-1993 and 1989-1993 five Eastern European states which were analysed
achieved an increase in their trade with the EU. Although slowly, the market
share of these countries in the European market began to increase.
Nevertheless the processes of rapprochement analysed using the Maastricht
criteria are extremely contradictory and slow (table 7). This shows that on
the whole the process of the integration of the Eastern European countries
into the EU will be delayed. The initial predictions of 10-15 years to
integration have been revised to the years 2005-2010 at the earliest.
Table 6
Trade in industrial goods between the EU and the countries of
Central and Eastern Europe.
(millions of ECU at current prices, market share in % of the
entire trade of the EU with other countries).
CEE
Bulgaria
Czechoslovakia
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Volume
Market share
Import EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993*
5146
7532
8222
9303
10525
13598
16736
12674
3,56
3,23
2,80
2,76
3,06
3,63
4,43
4,55
242
362
350
398
441
600
762
572
0,17
0,16
0,12
0,12
0,13
0,16
0,20
0,21
1139
1875
1950
2228
2401
3678
5102
3840
0,79
0,80
0,66
0,66
0,70
0,98
1,35
1,38
1131
1616
1816
2182
2547
3138
3554
2468
0,78
0,69
0,62
0,65
0,74
0,84
0,94
0,89
1709
2149
2552
2842
3962
4973
5984
4662
1,18
0,92
0,87
0,85
1,15
1,33
1,58
1,67
924
1530
1555
1654
1174
1209
1334
1132
0,64
0,66
0,53
0,49
0,34
0,32
0,35
0,41
Export EU
1980
1985
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993**
6808
8648
8412
10079
10522
15213
18875
15914
3,53
2,63
2,58
2,73
2,84
3,99
4,79
5,27
681
1378
1300
1323
818
895
977
777
0,35
0,42
0,40
0,36
0,22
0,24
0,25
0,26
1126
1730
1969
2142
2343
3428
5628
4582
0,58
0,53
0,60
0,58
0,63
0,90
1,43
1,52
1424
2254
2123
2673
2624
3136
3745
3173
0,74
0,69
0,65
0,72
0,71
0,82
0,95
1,05
2206
2324
2460
3299
3717
6663
6967
6051
1,14
0,71
0,75
0,89
1,00
1,75
1,77
2,00
1371
963
559
642
1021
1091
1557
1332
0,71
0,29
0,17
0,17
0,28
0,29
0,40
0,44
Eurostat and European Commission Services
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 63).
* January--September
** January--September
Table 7
Do the countries of Central and Eastern Europe fulfil the criteria
for membership of the EU as set out in Maastricht?
Criteria
Bulgari
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Rumania
Slovakia
Complete convertibility
Strong Central Bank
Low inflation
Low public debt
Low budget deficit
Low interest rate
Convertible currency
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
yes
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
no
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
no
yes
no
yes
no
no
no
National sources; OECD -- estimates and projections, Qvigstad, 1992;
(see Transforming Economies and European Integration, UK, 1995, p. 39).
The fourth problem is the integration of the technology of the Fourth
Civilisation and the reconstruction of their own industries. The opening-up
of the markets of the Eastern European countries and the invasion of
competitors from all four corners of the world has created a danger that
some of the more progressive sectors of the economy will collapse. In
certain countries, Bulgaria for example, there is evidence of a process of
detechnologisation or the reduction of high-technology production in
comparison with the 1980's. The high level of outdated and worn-out
industrial machinery in Slovakia and Bulgaria has delayed progress. This
criterion is proof of how important it is to have a correct policy for
foreign investment and skilfully to combine the pre--1989 achievements with
world markets and technological structures.
The fifth problem is the development of a market infrastructure
adequate for the New Civilisation. To this extent the countries of the
Visegrad group and Slovenia are undoubtedly in a position of advantage in
comparison with the other former socialist countries. There is no doubt that
after the fall of the Berlin Wall the Eastern European peoples began a
process of rapprochement and integration with the world economy. The
universal processes of globalisation and the spirit of the Fourth
Civilisation have not left the post-communist countries untouched. The great
choice with which they were faced between 1989 and 1990 was totalitarianism
or democracy and a market economy. The great choice between 1993-6 and the
end of the century will be primitive capitalism or new civilisation.
An analysis of the economic and political situation shows that the
former members of COMECON are no longer an homogenous regional group. This
is due not only to the collapse of the common Eastern European market but
also to the different policies which the different governments have been
pursuing. In the mid-1990's the division between Central and Eastern Europe
was an artificially imposed concept. Now, however, it seems more realistic.
The Central European countries, sometimes referred to as the Visegrad Group
and Slovenia, are integrating significantly more rapidly than the remaining
countries and economically are becoming quite distinct. The second group has
a slightly different fate - the three small former Baltic republics of the
USSR who are seeking a channel into Europe by means of developing closer
ties with the Scandinavian countries, Germany and the U.K. Finally, there is
the third group of the Balkan states - Bulgaria, Rumania, Yugoslavia,
Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia where internal disputes and conflicts have
delayed their development significantly. The division of the former members
of COMECON into separate regional groups could lead to delays in their
integration the European Union and increase in the internal disputes.
After the post-communist countries, Russia and China are of particular
significance. With their size and resources they have an independent and
significant geo-political role. In Russia the problems of transition are
many time more complex than those of the smaller countries of Central and
Eastern Europe. Political stability, the expansion of the market
infrastructure and the redistribution of ownership are, in my opinion, the
strategic problems of this great power. It is very likely that as we
approach the beginning of the Fourth Civilisation Russia will for a long
time remain in the orbit of state, corporative capitalism. Arguments in
support of this are the concentration of privatised giant state industry in
the hands of a very small group of the population and the close connections
between this group and the state bureaucracy. China without any doubt will
increase its role in the world which in its turn will increase its political
stability and the continued awesome development of its massive economy. A
open question for China will be the choice between a single party system and
political pluralism with the preservation of the stability and integrity of
the country.
As can be seen, the post-communist countries are divided not by
criteria of democracy-communism but by types of democracy and their
closeness to the Fourth Civilisation. Some of them will become integrated
quite quickly into the directions of progress, others will turn back to the
era of corporate, semi-state capitalism. There is no doubt that the
transition will be complex and drawn-out and will take place in stages and
with the deepening differentiation between the Eastern European countries.
The direction of this transition in the long-run will lead to integration
with the economic and political systems of the most developed countries in
the world.
4. THE APPROACH AND THE END OF THE "THIRD WORLD"
Integration leads either to imperialist violence or the rapprochement
of social systems and the improved conditions of life.
U
ntil the end of the 1980's politicians and academics divided the world
into three parts: capitalist, socialist and the Third World - the world of
the economically backwards countries. Ideologues on the two sides of the
Berlin Wall divided the Third World into those countries with capitalist
systems and those with socialist orientation. Today, this "structure" has
entirely lost any meaning. The socialist world has evaporated and capitalism
has become transformed into something else. The "Third World" has changed
and no longer represents a community of countries with similar
charasteristics.
Until 6 or 7 years ago the Third World was defined as something
unspecific which would eventually merge with the first or the second. Today,
however, one has to use different criteria in evaluating any particular
country. In my opinion these criteria are based on the outlines of the new,
Fourth Civilisation, from those processes and phenomena which symbolise the
leading trends of modern progress. I would place the accent on three of them
in particular: 1. the share of high-technology production and activities
within the GDP; 2. the structure of ownership and social groups;3. the level
of socialisation of ownership and the integration of the market;4. the
openness of countries and the stability of their national manufacturing and
culture; 5. the GDP per head of population.
By using these criteria quantitively and qualitively we can propose
another global structure to the countries of the world. The first group is
of those countries which are symbols of human progress and which are in
transition from the Third Civilisation and to a large extent are the basis
for the Fourth Civilisation. For them the advent of the new civilisation is
already irreversible. I would include here the members of the European group
with the exception of Greece and Portugal, the USA and Canada, Japan,
Australia, New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Iceland, Malta and
a number of other states. The second group is of those countries which on
the basis of certain factors are on the edge of the Fourth Civilisation or
remain within the traditions of the 20th century. They are on the threshold
of the new civilisation but are essentially at a different level of progress
from those countries within the first group. I could include here the new
Asian Dragons - Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea,
Taiwan as well as countries like Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Costa Rica,
Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. The third group would include such countries
which have an industrial or semi-industrial structure and state capitalist
or some form of oligarchical or monarchist social structure.: Russia, China,
Rumania, Yugoslavia, Croatia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the
UAE, Pakistan, the majority of Latin American countries, Tunisia, Egypt,
Morocco, the Philippines, South Africa, Indonesia, Mexico and a number of
others. These countries have not yet achieved political stability and
economic balance. The fourth and last group includes countries whose
manufacturing and social relations are partially within the third and
partially within earlier structures of civlisation. These are the majority
of the African, some Asian nations and a number of countries of the Near
East. These countries are sometimes referred to as the "forgotten" nations
and need special help and programmes to link them to the rest of the world
and to overcome problems of poverty and illness.
Is it possible to speak of a common transition of civilisation when no
more than one fifth of the world's population lives in conditions similar to
those which we refer to as the transition to the Fourth Civilisation and
more than one third in conditions typical of the transition from the Second
to the Third? The basis for a positive answer to this question is
integration, the speed at which countries are coming together in the
conditions of globalisation. As a consequence of the openness of the large
majority of countries and the expansion of the world market the transfer of
new technologies and the management model is much easier and faster than at
any other time in the history of mankind.
The example with the countries of South East Asia shows that given a
suitable political climate countries can penetrate world markets and achieve
significant results. The rate of development in South Korea over the past 30
years has allowed it to overtake many of the Eastern European countries
which in the first half of the 1960's were significantly more
advanced.[48] The example of the Asian Dragons will be followed
by a number of individual states in Northern Africa and the Near East. Thus
we can speak of the collapse and the restructuring of the countries of the
"Third World". The Eastern Europeans have great potential. Other countries
such as Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Chile and South Africa also have strong
possibilities. They and a dozen or so smaller countries will gradually begin
to approach the highly developed countries - the leading figures in the new
civilisation.
For more than half a century, many of the leaders of the Third World
have been looking for their own direction in the struggle to combat poverty
and make progress. Ghandi and Neru in India, Mao and Dun Saopin in China,
Castro in Cuba, Sengor, Tutu and Kenyatta in Africa have conducted their own
experiments with varying degrees of success. The main question for all the
poorly developed nations is not to demonstrate their uniqueness but to
become incorporated into the trends of progress and the post-industrialised
Fourth Civilisation. The fear that foreign investments, progress in the West
and the open commodity and financial markets will undermine national pride
and specific cultural features is not always justified. Such dependence
exists only in the most corrupt regimes and where an imperialistic type of
dependence has been allowed to develop.
Technological and social progress even in the conditions of the open
market does not inevitably lead to the death of national cultures and
identity. In fact the opposite is often the case. The experience of China,
South Korea and Singapore has shown that only against the background of a
well developed economy can national and ethnic culture be preserved for the
future.
In the global world national identity and specific cultural features
will manifest themselves only at a certain level of economic development
when poverty and backwardness has been overcome. Nevertheless it will be
difficult for the dreams of the apostles of Black Africa or Che Guevara to
come true. The closed nature of the societies, corrupt regimes, the lack of
law and order and ethnic calm will continue to maintain the countries of the
"Third World" in the orbit of the past.
When I refute the division of the countries of the world into three
groups within the bi-polar model of the world, I, naturally, realise how
important it is to adopt a clear position in support of an alternative for
future development. The current lack of order and chaos has made many
proponents of change wait to see what direction change will take. My
understanding of this question is that for the next few years we shall live
in a multi-sector world with an enormous diversity of economic and social
conditions with enormous differences in economic levels. When I speak of the
multiplicity of sectors, I mean a multiplicity of political and economic
forms, political systems and specific governmental decisions.
At the same time I can see no other prospect for development apart from
growing integration and the gradual reduction of differences conditioned by
the integration of world financial markets. To this extent the multiplicity
of sectors is a transitional state despite the relative stability of the
world. The differences inherent in the form of ownership and political
systems will gradually disappear. On the other hand economic advances will
allow for the protection of the cultural diversity of the world and
spiritual identity.
5. BALANCED DEVELOPMENT
Post-capitalism and post-communism are stages inthe process of the
collapse of the Third Civilisation. The major question is what will replace
it? I believe that it will replaced by the societies of the Fourth
Civilisation -- societies of balanced development.
R
epresentatives of individual historical eras are bound to the limits of
their own time and are unable to see the world as a whole. All the major
ideological doctrines of the last few centuries have been linked to the need
for the resolution of group, regional or class contradictions. Global
thought was and continues to have little attraction for philosophers and
politicians. Even in the 20th century when world globalisation is gradually
on the increase, ideological and political doctrines have developed in
accordance with the conditions in one or a group of countries and specific
ideological models have imposed themselves through force.
Marxism-Leninism claimed to be a teaching for the whole of humanity.
However, despite Marx's attempt to evaluate the Asian methods of production
his doctrine did not take into account the cultural and historical
development of China and India. The imposition of Marxist or western
bourgeois models upon completely different cultural and historical roots was
a manifestation of philosophical and ideological monopolism. The 20th has
century provided us with many forms of Marxism and Liberalism but with the
increase in democracy more local cultural features have begun to dominate
over ideologies.
Today, while the Third Civilisation is in a process of disintegration
many things have not yet changed. The global approach has made its mark and
is no longer considered absurd or abstract challenge. The UN has taken on
more responsibility and increased its role in the world. A number of new
formations involved in global issues have arisen. One major result of such
processes was the summit meeting in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 at which
politicians from all over the world gathered in the name of the survival of
humanity. However, up to now these efforts have not yet produced any serious
results. Despite the conflicts evident in the world, despite the complete
irrationality of manufacturing structures, despite the continuing
destruction of forests and cultivable land, humanity continues to exist in
the condition of nationalist thinking or class, social and other types of
doctrines.
While global reseach is mainly directed towards environmental and
philosophical problems, there are still those who aspire to defend one
system, one model or one culture. In the risk of repeating myself, I
consider such attempts absurd. Neither socialism, nor capitalism, not the
political models of the countries of the Third World can serve today as
universal models for life on earth. There is little doubt that globalisation
and global culture will continue to penetrate the common principles and
standards of life. However, this process will take place through
manifestations of local culture, as well as specific national, regional and
ethnic features.
The modern world will no longer accept unified "military" models of
development. The dialectics of globalisation and localisation, the advent of
the new civilisation can offer a new model. If it is democratic and not
imperialistic as in the 20th century. There is no longer any room for
universal doctrines in the new era. Universal principles and legal standards
-- yes, universal ideologies and models -- no. "Yes" because of the
inevitable integration and mutual dependence of countries, "No" because of
the resolute and growing diversity of human life.
The 20th century was a century of imperialism and forced globalisation.
The 21st century will be a century of intermixing and synthesis of different
cultures and ideas. I am convinced that the time has come to pose the
question of the type and the direction of general world development and of
the main principles and trends of the Fourth Civilisation. In this way the
danger of global chaos and the resolution of global contradictions through
myriad local wars, tension and never-ending disputes may be avoided.
At the end of the 20th century, humanity has reached a stage in its
development wherein no single nation can impose itself on others and no
single country can exist in isolation from the others. This is the effect of
globalisation and the constant increase in mutual dependence while on the
other hand there is a marked growth in the role of local cultures. After the
fall of the Berlin Wall three quarters of the population of the world now
live in conditions of free economic initiative and more than 90% of the
countries of the world have multi-party democracies. Human rights, the free
movement of information and people are becoming more and more an integral
part of life. Communism, fascism, Moaism and Polpotism have collapsed.
Liberal capitalism is being gradually eroded by the growth in new
technology, the growing role of small and medium business and anti-trust
legislation. Socialism as it was once known by so many nations has been
consigned to the past.
What then will be the typical features of global development n the 21st
century? Over the past few years many of the industrial nations of the world
have begun to speak of "sustainable development". This was initially an
environmental concept, a combination of the models of the developed Western
societies and the desire to preserve life on Earth. A number of writers have
attempted to use this concept to make more comprehensive evaluations of
future economic growth, types of manufacturing and the challenges facing
future generations.[49]
However, the concept of "sustainable development" is still unclear and
unnecessarily generalised. It is useful in that it links many varied
national models to the common problems of humanity. Its inadequacy is that
it does not analyse such fundamental questions such as global political and
economic structures, the re-distribution of ownership and authority and
control over the media etc.. However, the concept of sustainable development
does not provide an answer to the major question -- what comes after
post-capitalism and post-communism? What will be the result of their fusion?
I would link the answer to this question with the concept of balanced
development. From a micro-economic and regional point of view it is not new.
The new aspect which I have added is to link it with the global transition
to the new, Fourth Civilisation.
The first general theory of economic balance was created by L.Walras
and V.Pareto, (the Losanne school of political economy). Their aim was to
create abstract mathematical models which provided a ratio between supply
and demand. In the 19th century and the first half of the 20th A.Kurno,
W.Jevans and A.Marshall made significant contributions to the formation of
the classical views of market balance. During the second half of the 20th
century, G.Hicks and P.Samuelson formed a "political synthesis" based on the
studies by the great Swiss economists nd the classic writers on bourgeois
political economy. The Hicks-Allan model is perhaps the best expression of
market balance.[50] It combines the process of the maximum use
for each consumer within the limitations of his income and the maximum
profit for each entrepreneur within the limitations of his produce to
produce a balance between supply and demand.
L.Walras come to some particularly valuable conclusions on the role of
the state in the establishment of balance and his advocacy of the principle,
"balance of opportunity against imbalance of the the factual
situation"[51]. Walras considered the liberal "Laissez Faire"
doctrine as a pure illusion and included the regulating role of the state in
his balanced system. He supports the cooperative movement and is the only
one of many like-minded thinkers to tackle the question of ownership. To be
unaware of the work of L.Walras is to be unaware of one of the most
brilliant writers on economic and political science.
The balanced economic theory of the Lauzanne school and to a lesser
extent the school of the neo-classicists is an initial pre-condition for
what I refer to as balanced development. At a theoretical and methodological
level a number of Marx's conclusions on ownership and the state are also
useful.[52] This can also be said of the ideas of "cooperative
socialism". In contrast to L.Walras, however, I do not see balance as an
ineluctable state or a description of the market but as part of the general
reforms of civilisation. The difference is that I approach balance not from
the point of view of the conditionally limited market but from a global
point of view. In my opinion, balance is not an ideal model but a trend.
There is no eternal balance, there is politics and specific historical
conditions within which it can be achieved. Moreover, I believe that balance
is not only an economic category but a tangential point for economic,
political and cultural processes.
The great modern significance of balanced development comes from the
bankruptcy of "communist nationalisation" and the inadequacy of liberal
doctrines. During the entire period of the 20th century these two concepts
did not contribute either balance of harmony. In fact the opposite -- they
caused innumberable contradictions and hundreds of wars. Pure liberalism
divided the world into the rich and the poor and will clearly continue to do
so as long as it is predominant in the world. Communism, in its very first
stage, brought about the total nationalisation of life and killed freedom
and civil societies. The idea of balanced development is an expression of
the new theoretical synthesis and the link between it and the globalisation
of the world.
From a national domestic point of view balanced development is a trend,
as well as a supporting policy, towards the redistribution of ownership
amongst the largest possible number of citizens and the gradual limitation
of the monopolistic role of families and individuals. Balanced development
is not a revolutionary but a reformist concept -- an expression of the
post-capitalist and post-communist development of the world. To this extent
it is a generalised expression not only of the division and redistribution
of ownership but also its socialisation. Integration and mutual dependence
within the manufacturing processes and financial operations, the transition
from a chaotic to an organised and computerised market presuppose the
interweaving of interests of the traditional and the new social groups and
strata. The gradual, logical and deliberate balancing of the market provides
above all for general economic balance. It is here that the Hicks-Allen
equation needs significant enhancement to take into account the increased
consumption of services and the role of new art forms in the industrialised
states.
At high levels of economic balance the objective role of the state in
the redistribution of ownership is reduced and vice versa. In a balanced
society the state fulfils a supportive and regulative role up to the moment
of the establishment of self-regulation and the horizontal balance of the
system. Neither the state, nor the civil society has permanent limits but
gradually during the processes of its maturation society overwhelms the
state, not the other way around. Of course, this does not mean that
centralised regulation will die or that the nation state will disappear
tomorrow.
Balanced development presupposes "balanced" human rights for all. The
basic pre-condition for the consolidation of balance is the provision of the
individual rights of citizens, their freedom to choose, to associate and to
be protected from the hindrances of bureaucracy. For this reason the corner
stones of democracy -- the freedom of speech and the press, the free
movement of people, goods and capital are the fundamental basis for balanced
development. This also requires the involvement of the state in the economy
and other areas on the principle of minimal sufficiency, as a guarantor of
civil rights and a factor in the formation of a dynamic social environment.
In contrast to liberalism, however, balanced development is possible only
with the redistribution of ownership amongst the growing part of the
population and its socialisation and integration. There are clear
differences between balanced development and the traditional (until the
1970's) concepts of social democracy. While the foundations of social
democracy defined a priori the role of the state within society and
presupposes nationalisation and greater or lesser levels of state control,
balanced development presupposes the minimalisation of the role of the state
with simultaneous horizontal socialisation. This excludes monopolism by a
small group of the extremely rich and the state bureaucracy. Only in this
context can there be any "balance" of difference social groups or relative
"balance of opportunity" (L.Walras) and social justice.
Balanced development presupposes the association of different ethnic
groups and cultures within the framework of the national state and the
global world. In general this concept is an expression of the expansion of
the relations within a civil society and the current notion of human rights.
Balanced development is inseparable from the legislative resolution of a
series of social rights (life, health, work, education, maternity, pensions
etc..) not only as the responsibility of the executive authorities but as
the responsibility of civil society. This takes the form of social funds,
companies, charitable organisations etc. which are independent of the state.
This also leads to the need for the protection of the private life of the
individual. There can be no balanced development if the social security of
citizens is not guaranteed in a new way. This concerns the protection of the
family, women and children, pregnancy and maternity, personal, genetic,
ethnic and behavioural information.
Balanced development presupposes the existence of any specific feature
which does not negate any another, the combination and mutual harmony of all
the features of mankind and social and ethnic groups. The political regimes
and the cultures of the Third Civilisation imposed their models and cultures
through violence. The Fourth Civilisation and its main features -- balanced
development means the rejection of such practices. Most significantly, this
doctrine could become a common reality only if applied globally. It is
already clear that any further increase in the gap of imbalance between
indivual nations stimulates chaos in the world and will cause even greater
damage within the most developed countries. I recently heard someone say in
a small Bulgarian town, "How can I live peacefully, when there is poverty
all around me and rising crime?" These were the words of a well-off man who
was aware of the simple economic truth that if you are richer than others,
you become the object of their dissatisfaction. This is something which will
have to be understood in the industrialised western countries. Otherwise,
sooner or later they will be obliged to isolate themselves and to experience
the hatred of the poor.
The outcome is clear: gradually and inexorably, in accordance with the
norms of the global world, economic levels will balance out. In other words,
balanced development is only possible and necessary in the international
aspect, both as a consequence of and a precondition for the globa