60
and 1990 Japan indisputably became a member of the family of the world
economic leaders and this list will continue to grow. There are at least
another 5 or 6 countries in the next 20--30 years which will win significant
economic positions and will find their niches in the world market, balanced
between the old leaders. At the end of the 20th century and clearly at the
beginning of the 21st century the stimulus will continue to come from Asia
-- not only from Japan but also from China where the growth rate at the
beginning of the 1980's deserves admiration, from Australia whose resources
and its "bridge" policies between the USA, Asia and Oceania have given it
tremendous advantages and from Indonesia and the Philippines which are also
making strong progress.
There are good grounds to expect that at the beginning of the 21st
century the more powerful Latin American economies will also begin to move
ahead beginning no doubt with Brazil. If they achieve political stability
and a balanced process of denationalisation then a number of Eastern
European economies will also begin to make progress. Russia with its
colossal, untapped resources will also begin to play a serious role.
I am leading to a statement of my opinion that further economic growth
will of necessity require the removal of economic monopolism. Despite the
ambitions of dictators, selfish politicians and militant ideologues the
globalisation of the world has not lead to the economic domination of one or
two countries or individual governments. At the end of the 20th century
there is also another clear growing trend which will be predominant in the
New Civilisation. I could call this "economic polycentrism" or in other
words, the trend towards the re-distribution of economic power and strength
between a larger number of countries with the gradual involvement of new
ones. It should not be considered that such a trend towards economic
polycentrism will summon in a "glorious future". There is not a single
country (or group of countries) which can independently control global
finance, natural resources or the markets. There is no one country which is
in a condition to force the others to follow it. Directly after the fall of
the Berlin Wall the theory of the "responsibility of the single super power"
become popular. Some people in the USA between 1991--1994 developed this
idea, combined it with the American dream and tried to establish a complete
doctrine on this basis. Fortunately, the majority of American politicians
and the majority of American intellectual elite have realised that this
concept is unreal and have rejected it. During my many meeting with American
politicians and diplomats in the State Department of the USA between
1995--1996 I became growingly aware of the rejection of this idea but also
of the impossibility of this task from the point of view of finances and
resources. The experience of the USSR and the USA during the last 50 years
has shown categorically that to take on the role of a world super power to
defened the sovereignty of the remaining states means to take on an
unsupportable financial burden. The collapse of the USSR and the growing gap
between the USA and Japan are to a large extent due to the burden of
military expenditure.
Polycentrism is at the root of world economic development and at the
root of democracy. It is a counter-trend to the experiences of imperialism
which has dominated world politics for the last 150 years.
4. IS THERE A NEED FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC REGULATION?
If the global economic world is becoming more polycentric is there not
a danger of permanent chaos? Is global economic regulation a way to avoid
it...?
T
he new civilisation which humanity is entering is the antipathy to
imperialism. Instead of the super powers and the great powers of the Third
Civilisation the main trends of the Fourth Civilisation are polycentrism and
the possibility for an increased number of countries and people to
participate fully in the international division of labour. The mutual
dependency of the countries and state leaders make this process sustainable.
To this we should add one more element which was discussed in chapters five
and six, the transfer of a significant portion of the economic power of the
nation state to corporations, companies and individuals or, in other words,
organisations and the civil society. The combination of these two processes
has lead to great changes in global economic structures but has also posed a
number of new questions of principle about world development in general.
During the past four or five hundred years everything seemed to be clear:
all dependended on the state and their monarchs or leaders, later
governments and parliaments. Today things have altered significantly. The
multi-national corporations control the major processes of the global world
and more and more people including political leaders realise that this is
the case. The lack of correspondence between globalisation and the
nationally organised activities of governments could lead the world into
serious new crises as was discussed in chapter three.
If politicians are aware that they are losing their grip over power and
realise that they cannot guarantee their election promises to their
electors, what should they do? The most logical solution would be for the
large international companies to assume national responsibility for all
their activities and to be put under some sort of legal control. This should
also extend to the investments of large sums of money abroad. Such
experiments have been made and will continue to be made. The results are
usually disastrous since they lead to the "closure" of the national economy
depriving it of any possibility to rationalise its manufacturing industry.
If any particular government or parliament imposes limitations upon
companies which are acting within their jurisdiction, then they will simply
leave the country and will find other more accommodating partners and
patrons. Experiments to impose limits on the movement of capital or to
impose direct influence on the management of corporations in modern
conditions is doomed to failure. Such methods are within the arsenal of the
outgoing civilisation.
So there remains another possibility, the creation of an adequate
system of global economic regulation. The aim of this new system is to form
common economic conditions and regulations for the activities of all
economic subjects operating within the global market. I am convinced that
sooner or later such a system of global regulation will become a reality.
History cannot be halted. It is not possible to turn back the trans-national
corporations upon which so much of modern progress relies, nor is it
possible to delay the progress of globalisation which is stimulated by them.
Progress means the establishment of a new world economic order based on
the common global rules of the game. Years perhaps even decades will pass
before such an order is established but even today the need for it is
evident. This is the only guarantee against the threat of a return to
imperialism, the widening of the gap between the poor and the wealthy
nations. One must be aware of two possible misconceptions, firstly, that
there is a need for the creation of a united world government and secondly,
that the role could be fulfilled by the United Nations. Undoubtedly, the
generations which will live through the second half of the 21st century or
later will find some solution to the matter of a world government. Today,
however, this is still a Utopia and not only because it will be derided by
the vast majority of politicians but because nation states have not
exhausted their functions. For this and many other reasons the UN cannot
take on the responsibility of global governmental functions.
Globalisation which is being propelled by the multi-national
corporations and new technology presupposes the gradual development, above
all, of a new world economic order. The quicker this takes place, the sooner
humanity will enter a new, more mature stage of its development.
When after the Second World War the Brenton Woods system was
established, governments bore the complete responsibility for the management
and movement of monetary flow. The medium and long term transfers of capital
were managed by national governments and the international finance and
currency organisations. In these conditions fixed exchange rates played an
important role as a stabilising factor and the International Monetary Fund
complemented the role of the central banks as a reserve fund. This system
functioned for three decades.
The main reason for the end of the Brenton Woods system was that as a
result of the turbulent development of world trade, the majority of
international liquid funds overflowed beyond the limits of the nation
states. This mass of funds increased by such a huge amount that the volume
of international currency speculation began to overtake the volume of trade
in goods. In such a situation the world stock exchanges became a
significantly more influential factor than fixed exchange rates. With the
transition to floating exchange rates the world entered an intermediate
state. The abilities of the national governments to "manage" their economies
independently became significantly hampered. This was a state of "paradise"
for the trans-national corporations and world financial players. The world
has lived with this system now for more than twenty years. I can now
categorically say that this system based on floating exchange rates,
enormous levels of currency speculation and the uncontrollable growth in
government borrowing can last no longer. We are sitting on top of a powder
keg as a result of the huge mass of money which is outside the control of
financial institutions. This system has created privileges for corporations
which possess large amounts of free money and those who exploit the
instability of the system to multiply their billions.
As an antidote to the present international practice of "liberalism" I
propose the logic of balanced development. This requires the creation of a
set of common rules for the movement of monetary flow, compulsory reserves
in the case of investments, stronger controls of "off-shore" zones and the
environmental responsibilities of investors etc.. Such measures will lead to
a reduction in interest rates which in turn will be of benefit to the weaker
nations and will lead to a re-direction of investments into the real sector
of the world economy. I do not know whether there will be enough willingness
or readiness on the part of governments and central banks of the largest
countries to carry out a common global macro-economic policy on the basis of
general agreements and long-term accords. The problems could be resolved by
the financial and governmental leaders of 7--10 countries and given the
current state of the world, the rest would follow.
The other possible solution would be to create a real World Bank which
would guarantee universal conditions for the exchange of currency and a
single global macro-economic policy. Such an idea, if it was supported by a
number of financial experts would have a revolutionary, radical character
and might be able to put a stop to instability. I am not convinced, however,
that at this stage the national governments and the central banks would
agree to such a step, although I, personally, am strongly in favour. The
majority of world financial strategists still hope that the Federal Reserve
System of the USA[59] and the central banks of Germany, Japan and
a number of other countries will be in a position to control the world
currency markets. During the past twenty years this has, more or less, been
the case. When the world financial markets begin to "hit below the belt" the
central banks of the major countries coordinate their activities to
intervene.
There is sufficient evidence to show that this practice is ineffective.
One only has to look back to the collapse of the US dollar against the yen
in 1995. This was a clear enough sign that the restoration of balance is
becoming more and more difficult and the powers of the central banks more
and more inadequate. This process is inseparable from the universal logic of
the collapse of the institutions of the Third Civilisation. First of all,
liberal international economic relations in the last couple of decades have
caused the increase in the strength of the "free" players on the world
financial markets and made their structures infinitely more complicated.
Secondly, the polycentralism of the world economy has brought many more
national currencies into the "turnover" of the world stock exchanges.
Despite the interest of many countries the dollar will no longer be able to
play the role of an international currency.
Consequently, there is little likelihood that the current system will
survive. It will be necessary to begin negotiations on the creation of a new
system of global economic regulation or to develop an entirely new World
Bank with similar regulatory functions. I believe that there will be more
and more support for the issuing of a currency which will be subject to
multi-lateral control and which could be based on the special issuing rights
of the International Monetary Fund or other forms of securities which could
be issued by a new World Bank.
The system of global economic regulation is an inevitable new feature
of the Fourth Civilisation. We shall gradually have to become used to the
idea of accepting universal standards of economic and human activities and
the formation of international courts which will resolve any conflicts which
may arise. These will be above all a series of environmental standards about
which the people of the world are particulary sensitive at the moment.
However, at the same time there will have to be new standards for the
payment of labour, social security and arbitration etc.. It is a shameful
fact that many of the trans-national corporations have moved their
production facilities to less developed nations to avoid pressure in other
countries. Recently a large number of workers in Ecuador appealed to an
American court to request compensation for being poisoned by pesticides
while working for an American company. It is not clear whether the American
court will be able to pass judgement on matters pertaining to foreigners
outside their jurisdiction. However, it is clear that the absence of
acceptable international standards and an adequate international court
system is a precondition for inequality amongst nations. What it cannot do
in the USA, an American registered company may do in Ecuador. There are
innumerable examples of such practice in our modern world of inequality.
One of the main aims of the system of global economic regulation will
be the increase of global savings with a view to the increase in the level
of investments on a world scale. The needs for investments in Asia, Eastern
Europe and Latin America are constantly on the increase. As a result of the
opening-up of the world and after the fall of the Berlin Wall the need for
investments will continue to rise until the end of the 20th century and the
beginning of the 21st. If the levels of savings reduce as they did in the
1980's, this will create extremely serious problems and will hold back world
development.
In general terms the system of global economic regulation is the
mechanism which will limit and will, eventually, put a stop to the processes
of the chaotic development of the world economy. This would provide a
stimulus to the development of many countries creating the opportunity for
the gradual balancing of the economic levels of the countries of the world
assisting in the formation of universal world criteria for economic growth.
Sooner or later this system will become reality. The problem is for people
to become aware of its necessity sooner rather than later.
5. VIVAT EUROPA AND THE DEATH OF THE INTROVERTS
One of the possible scenarios for the future is the division of the
world into regional blocs. Is there a risk that the integration of Europe
and the aspirations of the Europeans to create a common home will lead to
the new division of the world or will globalisation turn the regionally
integrated blocs into marginal powers...?
T
he establishment of the global institutions of the Fourth Civilisation
will take place from the bottom up through a gradual process of the transfer
of the rights of the national governments, legislative and judicial
institutions to international organisations. The best example in the history
of humanity is the unification of Europe: from customs unions, the free
movement of people, capital and knowledge, the creation of a European
parliament, government and court to the decisions to create a common
European monetary union (EMU) and the single currency (EURO). Over a period
of 30 years the builders of the European Union have not only established the
Common Market on the basis of tremendous dedication and created the
foundations for universal citizenship but also created a common feeling of
belonging for all the citizens of the member countries. In answer to the
opinion poll carried out by the "Eurobarometer" in July 1994 "Are you
frightened of or do you believe in the European Market?", 53% believed
strongly or relatively strongly, 35% were afraid or relatively afraid and
12% had no opinion. I mention these statistics here because I want to prove
the most unbelievable fact that only fifty years after the most destructive
war in Europe, former enemies have realised that the borders between them
are of little significance and that the road to progress is not through war
and disputes but via a single market.
There is no need to dwell on the details of European integration. There
are literally hundreds of books written on the subject which say practically
all there is to say. For the needs of my study, the European experience of
integration has a different meaning. If the advocates of integration in
Europe succeed (and they almost have) this will have an exceedingly positive
effect on global processes. The European Union has proved in practice that
the processes of integration are stronger than national prejudices. It is no
accident that the European continent which during the 20th century has
suffered more than any other region of the world has managed to overcome its
divisions and the selfishness of its national interests. Europe has learnt
from its suffering and torment. More than 60 million Europeans died in world
and civil wars in the 20th century alone.
The collapse of the Berlin Wall and the unification of the two halves
of the divided Europe was of particular significance for the pan-European
processes. It posed the question of whether the model of European
integration can be applied in other parts of the world. Would this example
be followed in North and Latin America or Asia? Are the European Union,
NAFTA and the far-Eastern processes of integration comparable? Would the
regional processes of integration push globalisation to one side?
One of the possible scenarios for the future is the division of the
world into regional trade blocs. The European market and currency union, the
North American Free Trade Agreement (a new version based on the old 1960
agreement), The Caribbean Common Market and a new far-Eastern zone for free
trade are trading blocs which could become a basis for conflict. There are a
number of writers, L.Thorou, for example who believe that the 21st century
will be a time of regional trade blocs and their selfish domination of the
world.
There are a number of political concepts based on this. The USA will
distance itself from Europe. Europe will strengthen its borders with the
East to isolate Russia. Military security will coincide with the borders of
the integrated regions etc.. Such ideas are logical only if the intellectual
horizons of the advocates are no further than the ends of their noses.
Regional isolation within the limits of whatever integrated bloc is an
extremely dangerous prospect. It will lead to a chain reaction within the
whole world and the creation of similarly isolated regions within American
and Asia. While there is little likelihood of this taking place within the
new Asian dragons, or the newly confident Latin American economies or
Australia, this prospect does not look too improbable for Europe. The
European syndrome of "protecting one's achievements" and "strengthening of
one's borders" in order not "to let chaos take over" is still alive and in
real danger of being provoked.
Of all the autonomous economic regions in the world at the moment
Europe is one of the most closed. Its internal exchange of trade is
extremely high it providing between 60 and 80% of the imports into the
larger countries of the Union. While as the European economy is strongly
dependent on Asian markets, its investments in Asia have reduced in
comparison to American levels. Europe cannot profit from this "integrational
introversion". It profits from its own integration but is losing as a result
of its introversion and from the lack of sufficient aggression in relation
to other markets. This is further stimulated by the fact that the share of
national ownership in Europe is significantly higher than in other parts of
the world.
At the end of 1995 there was a meeting in Spain of the leading European
industrialists. I was able to talk to one of the major European
industrialists after the conference, the president of the Swiss company ABB,
David de Puri. The European industrialists understand the simple truth that
"openness is at the root of success". They are in favour of the "more rapid
integration of the countries of Central and Eastern Europe into the common
European market" and also that it is up to the "Europeans to re-discover the
open world economy". I quote the opinion of David de Puri not only out of
respect for his undisputed talent as a global leader but also because of the
significance of his views in general. Each regional integration, including
European integration will be successful if it takes into account the laws of
globalisation and if it finds its place within the open global world. There
is no doubt that if the European Union becomes transformed into a more or
less closed community, if it becomes a closed bureaucratic multi-national
state, this will reduce its prospects. As a Bulgarian politician I am firmly
in favour of the acceptance of Bulgaria as a member of the European Union
and I believe Bulgaria to be part of the European cultural tradition.
However, I am not blind. Europe is the richest part of the world, with the
vast majority of historical and cultural archaeological sites and monuments.
However, it is only one part of the world. In the same way as I cannot
accept the term Americanisation, Westernisation or Japanisation, I cannot
accept the term Europeanisation. I would like to be able to shout out, "Long
Live Europe", "The end of European isolation", "The end of European
introversion" -- "Yes, to the open world!"
This brings me to my main conclusion. The regionalisation of the world
is possible and a probably inevitable stage in world integration, of the
transfer of the authority of the nation states to the supra-national
economic and political institutions. Regional integration is typical of the
transition between the Third and the Fourth Civilisation. It was typical of
almost the whole of the 20th century during which alliances between states
began to take on more long term features. After the Second World War they
took on an economic character. On the eve the new century, however, the
regional processes of integration will become more and more subordinate to
global processes. The globalisation of financial, raw material and
information markets will not permit anyone, including the champions of
integration from Europe to close themselves up from everyone else. This will
just be ineffective and of no benefit to anyone.
The Fourth Civilisation will accept the regionally integrated
formations as a intermediate stage in the framework of the polycentric
organisation of the world economic order. For a certain period of time they
will make up for the absence of global economic regulations without being
able to replace it completely. Thus, step by step, stage by stage the
structures and the institutions of the new human civilisation will be
formed.
6. THE BALANCING OF ECONOMIC LEVELS
The balancing of economic levels of countries is also as important as
their opening-up to the world. Each of these processes is impossible without
the other.
G
lobalisation and regionalisation, economic polycentralism and the
openness of countries, trans-national corporations and global economic
regulation, the new global communications and the reduction of the role of
the nation states, the deregulation and socialisation of ownership -- these
features best describe the economic essence of the Fourth Civilisation. This
could also be called global reconstruction or a new economic order or a
number of other titles. Countries are opening up to each other but this
inevitably requires the balancing of economic levels of development. Each of
these categories is impossible without the other at least at the end of the
twentieth century.
Today there are 1 billion rich people in the world, 2 billion people
with medium income and 3 billion poor people. It may be madness to speak of
the balancing of economic levels in such conditions. However, if there is to
be a new economic order based on the criteria of the New Civilisation this
is not impossible. To ignore the problems of poverty and the widening gap
between the poor and the rich countries is not only amoral but ineffective.
If the world continues to be divided into rich metropolises and a poor
periphery this will lead to further isolation. Sooner or later this will
give rise to further serious conflicts and new utopias and a new return to
totalitarian doctrines. Rich countries will not benefit from this.
Rich people do not like to live next door to poor families since they
feel that this will affect them. In the same way in the global village the
rich countries will be faced with more and more problems from the poorer
countries. Earlier in the book I wrote about the problems of realisation of
poverty by the poor and their possible reactions. Now I am writing about the
slow but inevitable process of realisation of poverty on the part of the
rich.
The balancing out of economic levels of countries and nations will be a
slow and drawn-out process. It is a general consequence, a common result of
all the structural and institutional changes which will accompany the advent
of the Fourth Civilisation. The huge level of imbalanced development between
the countries and nations is caused by the disintegrational processes of
isolated development of nations during the past three civilisations.
Different tribes and later national communities developed in the context of
completely new climatic conditions, resources and socio-political context.
It is entirely logical that certain nations should develop further than
others. First of all the Shumerians and the Egyptians, then the Greeks and
the Romans followed by the Chinese and the Indians. By the 15th century
there was already a clear trend towards European domination over the other
countries of the world. It is only now at the end of the 20th century that
this domination could be said to be coming to an end.
What are the differences in the development of the individual countries
of the world now in the 20th century? If we take as our basis the GDP per
head of population we can divide the countries of the world into three
groups, the rich with a GDP per head of population of more then 10,000 USD,
the medium-rich with a GDP of 2-10,000 and the poor with a GDP of less than
2000 USD.
Table 10
Gross Domestic Product per head of population (US
Dollars)[60].
Wealthy countries
Medium wealthy
Poor countries
Switzerland
Luxemburg
Japan
Bermuda
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Denmatk
USA
Iceland
Canada
Germany
France
Austria
UAE
Belgium
Italy
Holland
U.K.
Australia
Brunei
Qatar
Hong Kong
Singapore
Spain
New Zealand
Israel
Bahamas
Ireland
33,515
30,950
26,919
26,600
25,487
24,396
24,151
23,676
22,560
22,362
21,254
21,248
20,603
20,379
20,131
19,295
18,576
18,565
16,748
16,595
16,554
15,484
13,192
12,869
12,461
12,136
12,092
11,708
10,789
Cyprus
Taiwan
Kuwait
Dutch Antibbes
Saudi Arabia
Malta
Bahrain
Barbados
Greece
South Korea
Puerto Rico
Lybia
Portugal
Macao
Estonia
Gabon
Trinidad
Surinam
Latvia
Russia
Belorus
Fm. Yugoslavia
Brasil
Mexico
Uruguay
Argentina
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Hungary
Cuba
Venezuela
Botswana
Malaysia
South Africa
Kazakhstan
Mauritius
Ukraine
Iran
Moldova
Chile
8,641
8,546
8,520
7,300
7,300
7,217
7,075
6,581
6,498
6,356
6,338
5,842
5,626
5,417
3,829
3,777
3,620
3,585
3,418
3,220
3,111
2,956
2,921
2,874
2,860
2,794
2,714
2,711
2,690
2,620
2,614
2,585
2,503
2,474
2,467
2,429
2,336
2,205
2,176
2,163
Ruanda
Vietnam
Malawi
Laos
Burundi
Bangladesh
Madagascar
Zaire
Chad
Cambogja
Afganistan
Nepal
Buthan
Uganda
Ethiopia
Somalia
Tanzania
Mozambique
Sierra Leone
261
227
227
226
216
216
213
213
211
208
199
195
178
177
164
116
100
86
72
All the countries of the first group are inseparably linked to the
world economy. They have open economies and a relatively stable position
within the international distribution of labour. One part of the second
group has the potential of catching up with the first if they are permitted
to participate in the integrational processes and are provided with
sufficient investments. Greece, Portugal, Mexico, China, South Korea,
Hungary and the Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia,
Brazil, Venezuela, Thailand, Malaysia, The Republic of South Africa and even
Kazakhstan have sufficient potential to make serious advances. Table 10
shows a third group of countries whose position is practically hopeless and
whose manufacturing structures are hundreds of years behind that of the most
developed countries.
Of course, the GDP criterion is not exhaustive. It only shows the
actual productivity of the world population. Many countries in the second
group will face problems due to the high costs of servicing their foreign
debts, especially when compared with GNP. Table 11 shows this ratio for 40
countries whose manufacturing industry is not in a position to pay the
rapidly accumulating foreign debts. 15 of them are medium-developed
countries including Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Malta, South Korea and
others. Of course, the foreign debt problem will hamper attempts to reach
the necessary level of economic development.
The paradox of the transition to the Fourth Civilisation is that one
group of countries is already within its embraces, another is standing at
the threshold while a third group is still living within the conditions of
the pre-industrial era. The majority of the population of Tanzania, Kenya,
Mozambique, Nigeria and other countries still live in huts. Large numbers of
children in Somalia, Ethiopia, Ruanda and Congo are dying of starvation.
Given such a situation, are we right to pose the question of the balancing
of economic development? I believe that we are right and that this is the
only way for the New Civilisation to establish itself.
Table 11
Foreign Debt as a percentage of Gross National Product[61]
Syria
Bolivia
Uganda
Oman
Costa Rica
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Bulgaria
Tanzania
Cyprus
Mozambique
Ghana
El Salvador
Kenya
South Korea
Papua New Guineau
Tunisia
Poland
Lebanon
Malta
728,4
426,0
283,4
262,6
250,8
225,3
222,6
221,7
214,7
181,7
167,5
155,9
148,3
142,4
130,2
129,9
118,1
114,5
113,8
109,8
Mauritius
Hungary
Ethiopia
Zaire
Barbados
Zimbabwe
Panama
Sri Lanka
Dominican Rep.
Togo
Gabon
Benine
Jordan
Egypt
Nepal
Nigeria
Uruguay
Laos
Cameroon
Lesotho
109,2
108,8
104,9
95,4
94,8
89,6
88,1
88,1
85,3
85,0
84,6
82,3
81,0
80,0
79,0
77,0
73,6
72,9
72,6
71,5
If the existing world structures and the liberal structures of the
world economy are preserved, the gap between the most develop and the least
developed countries will continue to increase. Only in the last 30 years
this gap measured on the basis GDP per head of population has doubled. If
these policies continue in the future there will be no significant change.
It is true that the economic development of China and the smaller Asian
"dragons" and the expected revival in the economies of Latin America to a
certain extent will fill this vacuum. However, this is not the case for many
countries in Africa or for another fifty or so poorly developed states where
there is little hope .
The pure market approach will not guarantee balanced development for
another reason. 8-10 of the first group of the most developed countries will
for some time to come continue to "rule the world" and to aspire to the role
of an independent economic regulator. I am not saying that the global market
will not impose limits on this trend but the intense competition for
investments in the developed countries will give the poorer countries a
chance and will force investors to take risks. However, this will not be
sufficient. I believe that the decisive factor will the combination of
market trends with global regulation which will stimulate a significant
increase in investments from the wealthier to the poorer nations. Of course,
each of them will have to take additional responsibility for the
establishment of stability, order and the fight against corruption and
crime. For the moment things have been left to the interest of the
multinational groups. With certain notable exceptions this has not
stimulated the improvements to infrastructure in the poorly-developed
countries which they need for further economic development.
The problem of world poverty and in a broader context -- the balancing
out of economic levels will be resolved at a global level. This will be
accomplished by the United Nations, the IMF or the World Bank but above all,
by changes in the world economic order and the creation of institutions of
global economic regulation. Certain statesmen, including the late President
of France, Francois Mitterand, believed in the need for a comprehensive
agreement between the North and the South, between the rich and the poor
states. This was a good if not realistic idea. I believe that it would be
much more effective to develop specific economic programmes for individual
countries aimed at the stimulation and guaranteeing of private investments
via specialised funds and the integration of the poor states in the world
economy. Only about 2% of the global military budget would be sufficient to
carry out such programmes, or about 10-12 billion US dollars. This would
give a powerful impetus to the process of resolving the problems of hunger
and illness, the reduction in the birth rate and the creation of more
sustainable forms of income for specific populations.
The balanced development of the world requires a change in direction
from charity and hand-outs to policies aimed at changing the economic
infrastructure of the least developed nations in the world. It is true that
this will not at all be easy and that the reduction of military budgets does
not mean the sudden release of huge funds for investments. In many cases
these funds will "sink" out of sight as a result of corruption, the lack of
organisation and the desperation of the hungry. However, these are
inevitable difficulties which should not stop the process.
If humanity and especially the wealthiest nations do not take serious
steps to change the trends in the development of the poorest nations, this
will lead to the appearance of new utopias, open the way to religious
fanaticism and confrontation and incite new local, regional and even world
wars. If humanity finds the strength within itself to begin the processes of
resolving this matter this will lead to a change in the face of the earth.
New opportunities will be opened up not only to the people of the poor
countries but to all. What seems impossible and too expensive as an approach
to the struggle against poverty in actual fact will save money in the long
run because future generations will not have to pay the bill. Such are the
laws of the mutually dependent global world.
Chapter Nine
THE CULTURE OF THE FOURTH CIVILISATION
1. THE BEATLES, MICHAEL JACKSON AND
THE BULGARIAN CAVAL
Some of the strongest driving forces of the Fourth Civilisation are the
new global communications. They permit not only the simultaneous
distribution of information products all over the world but also promote
cultural images and standards, universal models and styles. With every
passing day the world is being taken over by a new universal culture.
W
hen I heard the Beatles for the first time in 1966 I was 12 years old.
This was in Sofia at a time when television, radio and the newspapers
divided the world into the "good" (socialism) and the "bad" (capitalism) in
the most terrible and primitive manner. The Beatles came into our small,
closed country via the radio. I remember that first of all, one or two of my
classmates and then almost everyone began to swap information about them --
who they were, where they came from and we began to learn off by heart the
titles and the melodies of their songs. The popularity of the Beatles began
to worry some of those responsible for education in Bulgaria I remember one
day our teacher saying to us, "Even if we like their music, the way in which
they dress and their behaviour is unacceptable".
This fact alone demonstrates that the Beatles were much more than just
music and that they were much more